Monday, February 4, 2008

Dist. 1 Class AAAA Strength of Schedule Rankings

Using District One's "Schedule Points" totals from its published power ratings, I tried to determine the schedule strength (opponents' winning pct.) for each team.

To do this, I reversed the district's formula for calculating schedule points. I took "Schedule Points" and divided by the number of games played and divided that total by five.

I didn't even look at the individual schedules. I went straight from the district's "Schedule Points" totals. If I am wrong, please let me know where the mistakes are. I probably made at least a few errors.

TEAMOPP WIN PCT
1. Penn Wood
0.594
2. Cheltenham
0.573
3. Down. West
0.562
4. Down. East
0.556
4. North Penn
0.556
6. CB East
0.550
7. Pennridge
0.538
8. Upper Dublin
0.537
8. CR-North
0.537
10. Conestoga
0.531
11. Neshaminy 0.527
12. CB South
0.524
13. Souderton
0.521
14. Unionville 0.520
15. Lower Merion
0.518
16. Chichester
0.516
17. Boyertown 0.515
18. Bensalem 0.514
18. Perkiomen Valley
0.514
20. Spring-Ford
0.512
20. Chester
0.512
22. Norristown
0.509
23. Upper Darby
0.506
24. Henderson
0.505
25. Kennett
0.495
26. Garnet Valley
0.490
27. Methacton
0.476
28. Abington
0.475
29. William Tennent
0.471
30. Wissahickon
0.471
31. Sun Valley
0.460
32. Great Valley
0.459


Schedule strength does not seem to mean a whole lot in the final power rankings. Cheltenham's No. 2 schedule, for instance, earned it only 13.67 more total "Schedule Points" (68.75) than Great Valley's No. 32 schedule (55.08 "Schedule Points"). That's less than the points earned with three victories (against any opponent).

Teams are much better off beating weaker teams than taking a chance of losing to stronger teams.

Most coaches want to play better teams to make their own players better. But coaches who do so in this system seem to put their teams at a disadvantage in the district tournament.